Future Jobs in the World

Technology is ever evolving. Fast advances in technology have historically displaced certain types of work. For example 40% of the population in developed countries was engaged in agriculture 100 years ago. That number is now down to single digits, while at the same time agriculture production volumes has increased manifold. The advancements have taken a much rapid pace today. Let us find out how job opportunities are in store for us in future.

I. Introduction

• A very famous scientist Joseph Schumpeter had once coined a seemingly paradoxical term “Creative Destruction”.

• Any technology that brings a breakthrough can never enjoy same prominence all throughout. For example, 90% of Americans were farmers in 1790, while 1.7% of Americans were farmers in 2011.

• Over those 200 years farm jobs were destroyed by exponential agricultural productivity gains during industrial revolutions and thus got replaced by jobs in new industries.

• Such a change is inevitable and the next industrial revolution would again bring new employment avenues with advanced technological improvements.

• Fast technology advancements is rapidly changing everything around us and it will not be a surprise to see a whole new world in next 5-10 years. We focus on some jobs that do not exist today but would shape the economy tomorrow.

II. The nature of the Future Jobs

• In this radical environment, we can surely predict that the jobs in future is going to be very different.

• It would be a time when machine learning, artificial intelligence, robotics, advanced manufacturing, cloud computing, genetics, and nanotechnology would solve human needs.

In fact, some of the noticeable changes that we see today would lead to spawning of new positions in future. Few of the jobs of future can well be:

• Modern Farmers: The supply chain has been a serious issue for food retail outlets. Also, there has been a declining employment rate in the primary sector. So, with new technology people can produce underground the grocery store and directly sell to customers.


• Augmented Reality Designers: The architects who would display real estate, home décor etc. through augmented reality technology while saving customers’ time and effort.

• Bitcoins Bankers: With crypto currency market rising, we can expect bankers who would suggest investments through bitcoins.

• Talent Pool Manager: With more and more work going to crowdsourcing, there have to be executives who can connect talented pools of people with organization for short term projects.

• 3-D Printing Engineers: Competent people who would design and engineer printer produced products.

• Drone Postmen: E-Commerce items would be dispatched through drones operated by skilled employees.

• Body Part Makers and Specialists: Technology will allow replant of organs for defective body parts by specialists.

• Nano-Equipment Designers: Creators of very small sized items who would help reduce the size of electronics and weapons.

• Robots Officer: With organizations switching to robots for the manual process, there would be need for officers who would monitor their proper functioning.

III. Way Forward

• Technologies developed in any part of the world now takes no time to spread all around.

• Under such a condition, nations should  focus on targeted actions to manage long term workforce with full proof skills, bring down the ever-growing unemployment rate and bridge the organizations-institutions communication gap.

• These efforts are not just to mitigate future risks but also to make sure that nations is able to capitalize on the opportunities presented by the next Industrial Revolution.

• As an immediate focus, businesses and government needs to make use of data analytics for workforce planning, talent management and initiating systematic change. 

• Harnessing digital talent platform would help to complement any new organizational models. In the long term, there has to be a focus on rethinking the education system to imagine what this new century curriculum should look like.

• However, simply reforming current education system to better equip today’s students to meet future skill requirement would not make our businesses globally competitive.

• A wholesale reskilling of existing workforce throughout life cycle is thus also required.
  

IV. Conclusion

• The world tomorrow cannot be fully visualized but can be appropriately imagined.

• It will be a space of new technologies with increased efficiency and better practices.

• With a strong strategic view for that new world, a nation that shows strong potential to keep its workforce ready for the future jobs would present its dominance at the international arena in the next decade.
  

India and the US: Then and Now

Donald Trump fought a strong political battle to be elected as the 45th president of the world's oldest democracy. India's past experiences with US presidents show that a Republican president is generally better for us than a Democrat one. But in recent history, Indo-US relations have broadly stuck to a steady path — starting with Democrat Bill Clinton to republican Gorge W. Bush to Democrat Barack Obama.

Here, let us have a look at what could happen to Indo-US relations that existed so far and how would it change with the new president.

I. Introduction

• Donald Trump holds the most powerful job in the most powerful country, thus making him the most powerful man in the world.

• His background is in the cutthroat world of business of unchecked capitalism where braggadocio and swagger are rewarded.

• India historically has preferred Republican presidents. But Trump is no ordinary Republican.

• India could stand to gain more from Trump’s harsh stance on China and Pakistan. But, India may have to fear Trump’s general anti-immigrant views.

• We will have to wait and see is how the change in the US politics change the long bonded relations between the two countries

II. India's Historical Relations with the US

• In 1961, India became a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement to avoid involvement in the Cold War power-play between the United States and the Soviet Union.

• The Nixon administration's support for Pakistan during the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 affected relations till the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.

• In the 1990s, Indian foreign policy adapted to the unipolar world and developed closer ties with the United States.

• Under Presidents Bush and Obama, the United States has demonstrated accommodation to India's core national interests and acknowledged outstanding concerns.

• Past many years have seen an increase in bilateral trade & investment, cooperation on global security matters, inclusion of India in decision-making on matters of global governance.

• In 2016, India and United States signed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement and India was declared a Major Defense Partner of the United States.

• According to Gallup's annual World Affairs survey, India is perceived by Americans as their 6th favorite nation in the world, with 71% of Americans viewing India favorably in 2015.

• Exports totaled $34 billion; Imports totaled $59 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with India was $25 billion in 2012. India was currently the 11th largest goods trading partner with $63.7 billion in total (two ways) goods trade during 2013.

III. Timeline of Key Events in the bilateral relations

• October 1949: Prime Minister Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru meets with U.S. president Harry S. Truman on a multi-week tour of the United States. This sets the tone for U.S.-India relations throughout the Cold War, creating constraints within the relationship, as well as opportunity for amity between Delhi and Moscow.

• December 1959: President Dwight Eisenhower is the first serving U.S. president to visit India. He addresses the Parliament.

• October 1962: Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru writes to President John F. Kennedy to request support from the United States in the India-China war. Washington supports India in the conflict, recognizing the McMahon line as the border, and provides air assistance and arms.

• 1963: Norman Borlaug travels to India to begin testing high-yield wheat varieties. His collaboration with Indian scientist Dr. M.S. Swaminathan results in the “Green Revolution,” and India.

• 1971: The United States sides with Islamabad in the India-Pakistan war, given its mediating role in Nixon’s rapprochement with China. India also signs a twenty-year Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with the Soviet Union in August, sharply deviating from its previous position of non-alignment in the Cold War.

• May 1974: India detonates its first nuclear device, becoming the first nation outside the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council to have declared nuclear capabilities. The move contributes to a period of estrangement between the United States and India that lasts over two decades.

• March 1978: The Carter administration enacts the Nuclear Nonproliferation Act, which requires countries not included in the Nonproliferation Treaty—which includes India—to allow inspections of all nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency. India refuses, and Washington ends all nuclear assistance to Delhi.

• December 1984: A toxic gas and chemical leak at American-owned Union Carbide Pesticide Plant in Bhopal, India kills thousands. The incident harms U.S.-India relations, and continues to complicate the bilateral relationship years after.

• July 1991: The government of Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao, launches sweeping economic reforms that help expand economic ties with the United States.

• May 1998: The Indian government announces the completion of a series of underground nuclear tests close to the border with Pakistan, surprising U.S. intelligence organizations and raising fears the move could spark a regional nuclear arms race. After recalling the U.S. ambassador to India, President Bill Clinton imposes economic sanctions, required under U.S. law.

• March 2000: President Bill Clinton makes the first U.S. presidential trip to India since 1978. The visit ends the estrangement of the post-1998 Indian nuclear weapons tests, although the Clinton administration presses India’s government to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. India’s economy begins to take off, the trip indicates a further shift in Washington’s regional orientation away from its Cold War alliance with Pakistan.

• September 2001: The George W. Bush administration lifts all remaining U.S. sanctions that were imposed on India after its 1998 nuclear test.

• June 2005: The United States and India sign the New Framework for the U.S.-India Defense Relationship, which sets priorities for defense cooperation in maritime security, humanitarian assistance/disaster relief, and counterterrorism.

• March 2006: The finalized nuclear deal, completed in July 2007, makes India the only country outside of the Nonproliferation Treaty that has nuclear capabilities and is allowed to participate in nuclear commerce.

• April 2010: U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner makes his first official trip to India to launch the new U.S.-India Economic and Financial Partnership.

• November 2010: President Obama visits India, where he addresses Parliament and backs the country’s long-held bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. The trip also highlights the countries’ economic ties, with Obama announcing $14.9 billion in trade deals.

• May 2012: Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta visits India to bolster military ties in the wake of the Obama administration’s announced “pivot” to Asia.

• May 2014: President Barack Obama congratulates Modi and invites him to the White House, reversing an earlier visa ban.

• September 2014: Modi and President Obama reach agreement on a MoU between the Export-Import Bank and an Indian energy agency, which provides up to $1 billion to help India develop low-carbon energy alternatives and aid U.S. renewable energy exports to India.

• January 2015: Obama and Indian PM Modi announce a breakthrough on nuclear-related issues that could help implement the U.S.-India civil nuclear deal. Six months later, the ten-year U.S.-India Defense Framework Agreement is renewed.

IV. Way forward in the bilateral relations

• India-U.S. collaborative economic agenda should include co-production and co-development of defense products under the Make in India program, coal gasification technologies, and the issuance of a non-FTA country waiver in order for India to gain access to U.S. fossil fuel reserves.

• Extend to partnerships in the area of agricultural technology, the civil aviation sector, life sciences, infrastructure financing, and green financing, among others.

• Bilateral dialogues should also address visa issues in the IT/ITES (i.e. outsourcing services) sectors, focus on exporting synergies in the biotech and pharmaceutical sectors, and find means to support university and other skill development exchanges.

V. US relations with India under the new administration

A. India loses on:

• Trump's hawkish 'trade policy' of 'America first' and his plans to renegotiate all foreign trade deals will affect treaties with India.

• His protectionist stance could impact Indian exporters such as IT and pharma, trade relations as well as fund flows to India.

• Trump terms H1B visa program as 'unfair' and has stated purpose to bring modifications to it. US business accounts for 50%-80% of the total business of the Indian IT companies and a minimum wage hike to $100,000 may translate into 9%-25% EPS cut in FY'18.

• The proposed import tax of 35% is likely to impact pharma and other companies with higher sales.

• Bringing jobs back to America would mean stricter conditions for entry to immigrants from India.

• Trump's promise to reduce US corporate tax rate from 35% to 15% could result in companies like Ford, GM and Microsoft rushing back to the US.

• The rush of the US firms will hit the Make in India program.

B. India gains on:

• Trump may go for stricter immigration rules, he says he wants to woo Indian entrepreneurs and students to the US.

• Trump criticized China on most occasions and sometimes described it as US's top adversaries. His stand on Pakistan is also not very positive. This could be an advantage for India.

• He stressed that he would China as a currency manipulator and impose heavy tariffs if China didn't agree to rewrite trade agreements. This may bring more trade opportunities to India.

• Trump's hard stance on terrorism could result in deeper Indo-US defence and strategic ties. In fact, recent increase in the defence budget clearly shows his strong views on strengthening the US defence power. This could further push Indo-US business ties

VI. Conclusion

• The U.S.-India bilateral relationship had been on a solid trajectory since the turn of the century. The Trump administration will certainly attempt to build on that progress.

• The promising growth potential and stability in India definitely makes it a safe haven within the emerging markets.

• The government has prudently reached out to the members of the Trump's team to show its problems with various policies in the pipeline. India is strategically important to the US and any regulations will definitely take that factor in account.

References

1. https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/south-central-asia/india
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93United_States_relations
3. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/for-india-there-are-opportunities-in-trumps-election-but-concerns-in-his-asian-policy/articleshow/55391027.cms
4. http://www.cfr.org/india/timeline-us-india-relations/p32994
5. http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/what-to-expect-from-us-india-relations-in-2016/
6. http://asiasociety.org/blog/asia/three-challenges-us-india-relations-under-president-trump
7. http://www.businessinsider.in/2016-election-results-Donald-Trump-and-his-affect-on-India/articleshow/55312791.cms
8. https://thewire.in/27048/a-trump-presidency-will-be-a-blow-to-india-on-many-counts/
9. http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/MVqKvlW0e2rNL4VtG7Y7aM/Donald-Trumps-presidency-and-its-implications-for-India.html
10. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/heres-how-a-win-for-donald-trump-will-impact-india/articleshow/55325954.cms
11. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/the-good-bad-or-ugly-what-trump-regime-would-mean-for-indian-market/articleshow/56688608.cms

The Future of Banking in India

The Union Finance Minister, Shri Arun Jaitley in his Budget Speech for FY 2016-17 emphasized the importance of a strong and well-functioning banking system as a vital cog in the financial sector. Stressed assets in public sector banks have plagued the banking sector since long. It is in this context that growth in the banking sector can be envisaged through consolidation of weaker entities with strong players in the market. The government has already put in action ‘Plan For Revamping of Public Sector Banks’, INDRADHANUSH, under implementation. Not to mention, technology will play a major role in the future banking aspects. In this constantly changing trend, let us look at how the future banking in India would unveil itself in the years to come.

I. Introduction

• The entry barriers to traditional Banks have been disrupted with new specialized entrants and emerging business models which have blurred the lines between business and technology.

• The Financial Inclusion agenda has led to several types of banking models–small banks, payment banks, and on tap license for new banks.

• Banking on the future : "Vision 2020” select key changes that banks need to make in their go-to market approach, starting with shortening their strategy cycles to months instead of years, getting better at reading signals of change in this disruptive environment, and becoming tactically focused on being operationally lean and agile in response to market conditions.

II. Innovation driving the growth opportunities

We will focus on key innovations for 2020 that are most likely to impact the banking sector in India.

1. Artificial Intelligence & Cognitive opportunities

2. Blockchain & Distributed Ledger Technology

3. Robotic Process Automation

4. Cyber Security

III. Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive opportunities

• With the dawn of cognitive computing, customers can now get quick, personalized services.

• Cognitive systems unlock the power of unstructured data (industry  reports, financial news) using deep text and/or image/ video understanding.

• They offer personalized engagement between banks and their customers by dealing with each customer and focusing on their requirements.

A. Examples of its Implementation

• Royal Bank of Scotland has trialled “Luvo” AI customer service assistance to interact with staff and potentially serve customers in the future.

• UBS used the help of artificial intelligence when delivering personalized advice to the bank’s wealthy clients by modeling 85 million Singaporean individual’s behavioral patterns.

• HDFC Bank has identified five startups whose services it plans to offer to its customers, in its bid to further boost its digital banking operations.

• ICICI Bank created “Technology and Digital Group” (TDG) that it hopes will help it develop its digital services in commercial, retail and wholesale banking.

IV. Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT)

• A ‘distributed ledger’ is an architecture under which all users who participated as ‘nodes’ in the network had a copy of the entire ledger.

• All participants had complete visibility of all the transactions at all points in time.

• Any updates to the contents of the ledger could happen by consensus of participants and any such addition would be in the form of an encrypted new ‘block’ in an existing ‘chain’ of all such prior blocks.

A. Considerations for a wider adoption

• Security Concerns

• Collaboration between banks, regulators and government

• Fragmented experimentation by many on Blockchain has led to a scenario where there is no standard protocol yet.

• Like Banks, most Regulators too are on a learning curve and it will take due time for a clear point of view to emerge.

B. Applications

• Cross Border Payments without any transaction fees.

• Blockchain-based service to issue pre-IPO shares of companies.

• Banks can offer loyalty points every time consumers use their credit card enabled by blockchain.

• Low cost micro-payments in rural areas. This solution aims to drastically bring down the cost of moving money in different areas.

C. Examples of its implementation

• Santander bank successfully completed the first cross border fund transfer using Blockchain technology.

• NASDAQ has been one of the earliest adopters of Blockchain technology. Following NASDAQ’s success, other exchanges like Australian Securities Exchange, CME Group, and Deutsche Börse are also experimenting with Blockchain based applications.

• Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) is currently experimenting with a Blockchain based customer loyalty application.

V. Robotic Process Automation (RPA)

• A technology that mimics the actions of a human performing simple rule-based processes.

• It interacts at the application/interface layer of any application and performs the exact steps just like anyone working across multiple applications.

• RPA is best suited for processes that are repetitive and deterministic, have minimum level of ambiguity, and very few exceptions.

A. Challenges in adoption

• Change in mindset

• Disruptive technology would bring job losses on a large scale.

• To build an RPA Business Case and Operating Model is difficult.

B. Examples of its Implementation

• Insurance Firms: RPA has helped enhance customer experience by reducing inbound calls and “indexing” turnarounds with digital interactions.

• Financial Services: Complex manual processes pose quality issue and RPA has helped reduce such errors and significantly improve quality.

• Pharma Company: RPA implementation significantly improved operational efficiency and helped in overall reduction of operational costs.

VI. Cyber Security

• Banking industry in India is rapidly evolving facilitated by mobile and internet penetration in the country and technological innovations disrupting the established processes.

• Questions arise if technologies like Digital Wallets, EMV Chip-based Cards, and two factor authentication via SMS-based One Time Password (OTP) are really secure.

• Threats like Phishing frauds, sniffing, misconduct, cyber attack, intrusion risks that can not be sidelined during a mobile based payment.

A. Chip Based Cards

• As per guidelines issued by Reserve Bank of India, banks have started issuing EMV chip-based cards.

• EMV chip-based cards make it more difficult for criminals to commit credit card fraud by copying a magnetic strip.

• Even though known vulnerabilities in EMV chip-based cards may have been fixed, it is only a matter of time before new vulnerabilities are identified and exploited.

B. SMS based OTP

• SMS-based one-time password (OTP) is an extremely popular and one of the most widely used form of two factor authentication (2FA) in India.

• OTPs make it difficult for attackers to gain unauthorized access to restricted resources, like bank accounts or databases with sensitive information.

• However SMS-based OTP has been declared insecure by National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and is only a stop gap solution at best.

• Risks: SMS redirection, VoIP based mobile numbers can be hijacked, lost/stolen phone, OTP based mobile number update.

• While the use of SMS-based OTP is being deprecated, secure mobile device is still a viable alternative to SMS-based OTP.

VII. Conclusion

• “Banking on the future in India call for various key changes that banks need to make in their go-to market approach, starting with shortening their strategies.

• Technology has democratized businesses by creating access across all levels and by creating a level playing field.

• New technologies are going to bring a revolution in the banking landscape in the next few years. The future banking in India is going to be very different from the traditional ways.

India Enters the MTCR

The Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) is one of the four nonproliferation regimes, enacted by 35 countries (incl India) to prevent the proliferation of missile and unmanned aerial vehicle technology capable of carrying a 500 kg payload for at least 300 km. The MTCR was established in April 1987 by the G7 countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Great Britain, and the United States. Four “unilateral adherents” that follow its rules: Israel, Romania, Slovakia, Macedonia. India also joined on 27th of June 2016 adhering to the MTCR Guidelines unilaterally.

I. Introduction

• The Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) established in April 1987 by the G7 countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Great Britain, and the United States of America.

• The Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) is a multilateral export control regime.

• It is an informal and voluntary partnership among 35 countries (Fig 1) to prevent the proliferation of missile and unmanned aerial vehicle technology capable of carrying above 500 kg payload for more than 300 km.

Fig 1. Member nations of MTCR

A. Purpose of MTCR

• The MTCR was initiated by like-minded countries to address the increasing proliferation of nuclear weapons by addressing the most destabilizing delivery system for such weapons.

• In 1992, the MTCR's original focus on missiles for nuclear weapons delivery was extended to a focus on the proliferation of missiles for the delivery of all types of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), i.e., nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.

• To maintain vigilance over the transfer of missile equipment, material, and related technologies usable for systems capable of delivering WMD.

II. Significance to India

Fig 2. Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar receives MTCR membership papers from Envoys of France, Netherlands and Luxembourg

A. Positive Aspects

• India’s entry into MTCR will bring it closer to NSG membership and will also help boost relations with other global Non-proliferation Community.

• The entry into this group will shape the future of India’s engagement with not just the MTCR but also the broader global non-proliferation community.

• Admission to the MTCR would open the way for India to buy high-end missile technology.

• After MTCR's announcement, India and the US are expected to fast-track their discussion on sale of predator series of unmanned aircraft for the Indian military.

• It will also enhance the level of understanding between MTCR member nations and India, allowing the latter to import technologies for peaceful purposes.

• India can counter China, who is still not a member of MTCR, when it comes to its entry in MCTR.

• ISRO will have reliable access to restricted technologies for developing its cryogenic engines in order to enhance space exploration.

• India will now have greater options to acquire and integrate a wider variety of cutting-edge technologies, thereby giving ‘Make in India’ initiative a further boost.

B. Negative Aspects

• Relations with China can hamper, If both countries start countering each other is their respective communities ( India in MTCR and China in NSG).

• Defense budget need to be increased, if India want to purchase new missile technologies from MTCR members, which will have an effect on other budgets.

• The dominant member nations like France and the UK have bent the rules of the group in their favor in the past. In all likelihood, the US is still likely to treat the export of armed drones to India with much more caution than it does to NATO allies.

III. Way Ahead

Indian membership to the regime has two implications.

• First, India’s accession will be seen as strengthening its own export controls, therefore lessening those risks and making it easier for other MTCR members to justify transferring sensitive technology to India.

• Second, while MTCR guidelines themselves do not explicitly distinguish between transfers to members and non-members – they focus instead on what is being exported and end-use, rather than the membership status of the recipient – American law does make this distinction.

• Despite India’s “harmonization” with the guidelines, US legislators have declared that “India is not an MTCR adherent”. India’s formal membership will presumably mean that other countries can be less fearful of US sanctions if they wish to sell to India.